Canada Elects a Banker
Who is Mark Carney and what does his election mean for U.S.-Canada relations
In a political world order that is increasingly marked by both right- and left-wing populism, anti-intellectualism, and skepticism of globalism and globalist thinkers, our friends to the north are going in the opposite direction.
In March, Canada elected Mark Carney as Prime Minister, who brings with him a polished resume that includes roles as the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, which is roughly equivalent to being the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, a similar role as the former Governor of the Bank of England, and a corporate career that includes stints with Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg, and Brookfield Asset Management.
Carney attended Harvard for his undergrad (serving as back-up goalie on the hockey team) and then went on to Oxford to get his PhD in economics. He is a financial technocrat who previously helped Canada and Great Britain navigate the 2008 Financial Crisis and the uncertain monetary waters of post-Brexit Britain. Now Carney has been tapped by the voters of Canada to help the country navigate the Trump Tariffs, the imposition of which Carney himself has called “The American Betrayal,” a sentiment shared by the vast majority of Canadians at this point.
How He Won
In early January 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would step down, triggering the start of a leadership contest within Trudeau’s Liberal Party. Mark Carney, widely respected for his leadership at the helm of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, formally entered the race on January 16. With deep expertise in economics and global finance and almost no political baggage having never served before in previous public office, Carney was a compelling, albeit unique, contender.
Carney ran on a campaign of diversifying the economy, building better internal bonds between Canadian provinces including making it easier to do business across the vast Canadian geographic expanse, climate response, and improving the nation’s housing stock.
But the one overarching issue that overshadowed everything else was the American president: Donald Trump. Trump has unabashedly threatened Canada’s very sovereignty for months now, suggesting Canada could become the 51st U.S. state. These seemingly offhand but deeply disturbing comments by the American president have come alongside the implementation of onerous tariffs on Canadian businesses doing business with the U.S.
The U.S. and Canada are each other’s top trading partners, and have historically enjoyed an amicable and mutually beneficial relationship. The U.S.-Canada trade relationship is characterized by deeply integrated supply chains, particularly in sectors such as automotive, energy, and manufacturing. Many goods cross the border multiple times during the production process, highlighting the interdependent nature of these two national economies. For instance, automotive parts may be manufactured in one country, assembled in another, and then sold back across the border (for more on this, see from the Sunday Morning Post archives: It’s Hard to Tariff a Pencil).
Carney successfully navigated a ranked-choice voting format to victory, and was sworn in on March 14th, becoming the first Canadian in history to assume the position without previously holding public office.
What Carney Means for U.S.-Canada Relations
Carney has not shied down from confrontation with President Trump and, indeed, was able to effectively shepherd Canadian nationalism in the face of the Trump Tariffs as part of his successful campaign strategy. In his victory speech, the new Prime Minister said, “America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country. These are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so America can own us. That will never… ever happen,” adding at a later press conference with reporters, “Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over.”
Carney, even with his own moderate persona and reasoned demeanor, was able to tap into Canadian anger. According to recent polling, while 85% of Americans seen Canadians as their friends, just over 50% of Canadians now see the United States as a hostile power.
Just last week, Trump commented further on his views on Canada in an interview with Time Magazine, saying:
But I'm really not trolling…we’re taking care of their military. We're taking care of every aspect of their lives, and we don't need them to make cars for us. In fact, we don't want them to make cars for us. We want to make our own cars. We don't need their lumber. We don't need their energy. We don't need anything from Canada. And I say the only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state.
Under that backdrop, Prime Minister Carney is set to meet this coming week with President Trump in Washington D.C. “It will be a complex negotiation,” Carney told the New York Times. “I’m not pretending those discussions will be easy…They won’t proceed in a straight line. There will be zigs and zags, ups and downs.”
There are ways Carney has already fought back against Trump and the United States, however, including by slapping retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods entering Canada.
There are more subtle Canadian responses, as well, including through building new trade relationships with other countries that could, in part, partially replace those with the United States even if the heat from the current tariff war cools off.
I was listening to a podcast interview with Mark Carney this week and was struck by another sentiment he shared that could have even more far-reaching impacts. On the Prof G Podcast with host Scott Galloway, Carney took on the question of diversity, saying:
We have a huge opportunity here [in Canada] because we’re one of the most diverse countries in the world. We value diversity. We have a very strong sense of equal rights in a broad sense. We can be a magnet for talent. And as the U.S. is pushing out brains, if you will, and it’s quite a hostile environment in the academic world in the United States now, we can take advantage of that. And then that cascades down through the AI revolution, life sciences, other elements.
A few weeks ago, I wrote about how visits to the United States are down. I had a number of readers respond with further perspective, noting that things are especially dire on some college campuses. Many foreign students do not feel safe studying in the United States. Others have lost their funding with severe cuts to federal spending for scientific research and in other areas. Many of these academics are now looking elsewhere around the world for places to study and perform their research.
What a tragedy. There is an acute risk right now that a generation of scientific gains and subsequent commercial endeavors that could be the future of industry and global life could come through Toronto and Montreal instead of Silicon Valley and New York. More power to Canada for taking advantage.
A Final Thought
Mark Carney’s election also signifies something else, which is that there is a path in higher elected office for a progressive-minded person (Mark Carney does represent the Liberal Party, after all) with business acumen. Left-center values with a right-center financial perspective is where, I believe, the majority of people around the world politically reside including here and, apparently, in Canada. Carney’s election gives hope for those looking for a more toned down, moderate, but intellectually sharp and thoughtful, caring perspective in politics. I will be very interested to see how he does, starting this coming week during his one-on-one meetings with Donald Trump.
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Ben Sprague lives and works in Bangor, Maine as a Senior V.P./Commercial Lending Officer for Damariscotta-based First National Bank. He previously worked as an investment advisor and graduated from Harvard University in 2006. Ben can be reached at ben.sprague@thefirst.com or bsprague1@gmail.com.