Summer Stats and Labor Day Links
Happy Labor Day, everyone, especially to all the hard-working men and women out there getting it done. I know it’s been a tough 18 months to say the least and certain industries and sectors have been hit harder than others. But for all the talk of unemployment, the real labor story from the past year and a half is that many people have never worked harder in their lives. Never-ending demands in things like construction and real estate and of course healthcare, supply chain issues that have disrupted the normal flow of business in unprecedented ways, and labor shortages that have made it that much harder for the people who do show up: it’s just been a crazy year. I hope people get some time off this weekend to enjoy a few moments of peace.
I wanted to share a few key statistics and data points from the last week as they give an indication of what the weeks and months ahead may look like.
On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the economy added 235,000 jobs in August, but economists had predicted there would be 720,000 new jobs in the month, so the report was a significant disappointment. Per Jeff Cox at CNBC, “August’s total — the worst since January — comes with heightened fears of the pandemic and the impact that rising Covid cases could have on what has been a mostly robust recovery,” which is the same point I made in last week’s column. Economists across the spectrum echoed the reaction to Friday’s jobs report. Delta is the driving variable right now:
Also this week, consumer confidence eroded further and pending home sales dropped, although in my opinion the latter is largely a reaction to prices just getting so high and not necessarily a sign of structural weakness in the market.
On a positive note, hourly wages rose modestly. Per Marketwatch, “Hourly pay jumped 17 cents to $30.73 an hour in August. Over the past 12 months wages have risen 4.3% and are trending well above pre-pandemic norms.” Walmart announced they are raising wages by $1/hour for 565,000 workers, the third pay increase in the past year, while here in Maine, Bowdoin College announced a $17 minimum wage for all employees.
How are things looking for the fall? I still need to spend some time digesting this week’s data, but my opinion from last week remains: we are in a bit of a perilous position. The economy will not get back to normal until COVID-19 is under control, and right now the virus is spreading like wildfire throughout the country. I will have some more thoughts on this in the coming weeks, so make sure you are subscribed below to get those articles in your inbox.
Weekly Round-Up
There were a number of things that caught my eye around the web this week that I thought might interest you too:
In a Harris Poll/Fast Company Survey, 52% of American workers are considering switching jobs and 44% actually have plans in place to do so. Remote work and stay-at-home work are important to 68% of poll respondees: https://www.fastcompany.com/90607167/is-now-a-good-time-to-change-careers-more-workers-are-feeling-good-about-it
Why don’t people want to go back to work? Per Odeta Kushi, it’s COVID:
Via Lance Lambert, do-it-yourselfers pulled way back from projects in recent months as lumber price rose:
Via Myles Udland of Yahoo Finance, what a difference interest rates make. As I’ve said before, the housing market will remain strong as long as interest rates are low. People can buy a lot more house at a 3.0% interest rate than a 6% interest rate.
Got news tips or story ideas? Email me at bsprague1@gmail.com. Have a great week, everybody. Have a great week, everybody!
Ben Sprague lives and works in Bangor, Maine as a V.P./Commercial Lending Officer for Damariscotta-based First National Bank. He previously worked as an investment advisor and graduated from Harvard University in 2006. Ben can be reached at ben.sprague@thefirst.com or bsprague1@gmail.com. Follow Ben on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram and subscribe to this weekly newsletter by clicking below.
