Tourism Market Preview 2026
A microcosm of the economy as a whole; mix of variables suggests a tepid but stable season ahead
As we look ahead to the summer tourism season throughout the United States (and especially in particularly high-tourism areas like from where I write here in Maine), the variables at play represent a real microcosm of the larger economic forces we are dealing with right now. Bifurcated consumer confidence reflective of the K-shaped economy, consumer anxiety in the face of high costs including gas prices, political tension and international friction: it’s all there, and it could combine together for a fairly tepid tourism season.
Even if you are not directly involved in travel and hospitality yourself, the state of the tourism landscape impacts us all because of the multiplier effects, or lack thereof, based on how much spending, or not, there is in this space. The travel and tourism sector in the United States supports 15 million jobs annually and generates $3 trillion in spending.
So what’s in store for the season ahead? On paper, the travel industry still looks resilient. Key data aggregators like Deloitte and McKinsey report consumers are still spending and, somewhat surprisingly, younger generations are increasingly likely to see travel as a “non-negotiable” expense. Experiences carry a premium in the post-pandemic psyche, particularly to younger people (my own theory on this is that young people sense their lives have become overly algorithm-ized, and spending on travel is a way to break free from digital malaise).
But the composition of travel spending illustrates a more complicated story. Deloitte’s most recent travel outlook points to a clear bifurcation: higher-income households continue to anchor demand, filling planes and booking resorts. Meanwhile, middle- and lower-income consumers are behaving much more tactically, including shortening trips, choosing drive-to destinations, or selecting down to lower-priced options. A family that still travels, but spends 20% less once they arrive, has a very different economic impact on the local economy of that area than one that comes without feeling as bound by spending restrictions.
This is the K-shaped economy at play. Premium and “ultra-luxury” travel continue to be extremely strong, whereas there is pressure in the middle of the market. Mid-tier spending, vacation add-ons, and ancillary spending on restaurants, extra excursions, etc., are all setting up to be softer in 2026 than they were in 2025.
One area that could show stability as consumers select down from mid-tier price options to lower tiers is in budget hotels, campgrounds, and the like. If you combine the millennial sensibility that travel is non-negotiable with the mathematical challenge of traveling in a high-cost landscape, and you will get travelers self-selecting down a tier or two in terms of accommodations and experiences.
However, this is where a more recent headwind provides a potential wet blanket on the travel sector, and that is the high price of gas. I’ve written a lot about gas prices over the past few weeks, in part because it is one of the most important topics on everyone’s minds, so I won’t dwell on it too much here, other than to state the obvious: when the price at the pump is so high, people pull back on driving, especially on long trips. Plane travel is typically more expensive, too, as airlines pass along as much of the cost as they can to consumers without breaking the demand. The average price of a gallon of gas nationwide closed this past week around $4.06/gallon, up close to 40% since the start of the Iran War.
The International Component
A recent BBC report predicts that 2026 will be a record year for the global tourism market. Destinations are changing, however. Europe has long been the most popular travel destination, but less sought-after locations have been surging of late. Per the report:
The destinations recording the fastest growth were not the usual headliners. Brazil saw arrivals surge by 37%, Egypt by 20%, Ethiopia by 15% and Bhutan by 30%. Even the Seychelles, a tiny archipelago off East Africa, recorded a 13% increase.
“More travelers are now drawn to distinctive culture, landscapes and the possibilities of discovery, so countries with a strong identity and decent access are clear winners,” according to Steven Vigor, CEO of travel advisory firm Revigorate.
One place that is not seeing a surge of inbound tourism is the United States. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council, although global travel was up in 2025 and boosted economies throughout the world, the slowest-growing region in the world was North America, with the United States itself growing its travel and tourism market by just 0.9%. The number of visitors to the United States was down by 5.5% in 2025 as compared to 2024. The big winners in 2025? China and the rest of the Asia-Pacific market. Tourism was up 9.9% in China in 2025. Malaysia and the Philippines were also up by double digits, with India and Indonesia both up just over 7.0%.
It’s not just leisure travelers and vacationers who are skipping the United States either. Business travelers and worker visas are also down, declining steadily for the past year, per the National Travel & Tourism Office.
Why? It’s not that travel overall is falling; in fact, as the statistics earlier on point out, global travel is actually up. Per Business Insider, just looking at travel by Australians, for example, global travel is back to pre-pandemic levels:
Australians travelling to Canada rose 4% in the last year, 10% more visited India, and visits by Australians to China and Japan rose 20% and 21%, respectively, but 3.2% fewer booked a trip to the US.
So we have to address the question head-on of why fewer people are choosing to travel to the United States right now, and it comes down to negative views of American politics, resentment of economic policies like tariffs, and just a general sense of unease if not outright fear that some people have about traveling to the United States right now, especially those of different racial backgrounds who feel hostility when they look towards our country right now.
Overall, many people are simply choosing to boycott travel to the United States due to the general sense of hostility and resentment that is out there. Amid bitter trade disputes, the former Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, called on Canadians to stay home this year rather than come to the States. Indeed, travel by Canadians by car into the United States is down by 35% over the past two years. There have been impacts here in Maine, for sure, with a general sense that the hotel, restaurant, and hospitality sector in general was softer last summer and likely will be again this summer.
For sure, there are other factors at play right now, too, including a stronger U.S. dollar and a more fragmented global environment. Even modest percentage declines in international visitors can translate into meaningful revenue losses because those travelers tend to stay longer and spend more per trip. That is why the season ahead may feel, in many places, like a season that is not quite flourishing.
There may be a glimmer of hope over the past week as gas prices did slightly ease down with news that the Strait of Hormuz may be opened back up, but it may also take some time for meaningful price declines to hit the pumps. The broader question of international perception towards the U.S. will undoubtedly take more time to reset.
Ben Sprague lives and works in Bangor, Maine as a Senior V.P./Commercial Lending Officer for Damariscotta-based First National Bank. He previously worked as an investment advisor and graduated from Harvard University in 2006. Ben can be reached at ben.sprague@thefirst.com or bsprague1@gmail.com. Thoughts and opinions here do not represent First National Bank.