I wonder if there is a better term for an event like 2008 than Black Swan. Covid was an actual black swan event, in terms of its actual timing even though epidemiologists and others had predicted the likelihood of another 1918 or Black Plaque type event.
2008, I think was different. Many financial analysts I studied and read in the preceeding years to the Great Recession had predicted some huge financial mishap due to NINJA loans, adjustable rate mortgages, and other financial shenanigans. So much so that, based on what I had been reading, I borrowed Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" phrase for a business law class presentation on mortgages in 2005. 2008 seemed more to me like an inevitability than a true unforseeable surprise.
I wonder if there is a better term for an event like 2008 than Black Swan. Covid was an actual black swan event, in terms of its actual timing even though epidemiologists and others had predicted the likelihood of another 1918 or Black Plaque type event.
2008, I think was different. Many financial analysts I studied and read in the preceeding years to the Great Recession had predicted some huge financial mishap due to NINJA loans, adjustable rate mortgages, and other financial shenanigans. So much so that, based on what I had been reading, I borrowed Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" phrase for a business law class presentation on mortgages in 2005. 2008 seemed more to me like an inevitability than a true unforseeable surprise.